Friday, 25.08.2006	posted by Sven Simon 10:45 pm
Category: FIBA World Championship

.................................................................................................................

PREDICTIONS

Guten Tag Everybody,

do you now about the best part of my job as a FIBA-blogger? The predictions! Here we go:

At first the games of the four favorites:

USA (5-0) vs. Australia (2-3)
Team USA will win against Andrew Bogut and his australian team. We will see the same US-style as in the first five games: pressure defense, a lot of fast breaks and a lot of isolation plays in the set offense. This is enough for Australia … but not the way to the gold medal.

Argentina (5-0) vs. New Zealand (2-3)
The olympic champion will win. No explanation necessary.
PS: Greets to NZL national player Pero Cameron, one of the coolest persons in professional basketball!

Spain (5-0) vs. Serbia & Montenegro (2-3)
Spain will win. Serbia got only one player from the championship team (Igor Rakocevic) from 2001 and is overall to young. And the spanish players are very hungry and very angry because of the last years. In 2005 they lost without Pau Gasol in the semis of the EC against Germany by Nowitzkis buzzer beater. In 2004 they played great at the Olympics, won all the games in the first round … and - because of that - met the struggling USA (and a very hot Stephon Marbury) in the quarter finals and got kicked out of the tournament. In 2003 they lost the EC finals against a magnificent lithuanian team. Now it is time for that spanish team to go all the way to the golden end. At least that's how they see it.

Greece (5-0) vs. China (2-3)
Greece will win, even without the injured Nikos Zisis. The outstanding defense of the greek team will be to much to handle for the chinese guards.

For the other four games: there is a good chance for very tight and exciting events.

Turkey (4-1) vs. Slovenia (2-3)
If Slovenia wants to win, the players need to play defense. They are very talented on offense, but if you want to get tickets for a deep trip in the WC, a big effort at your end of the court is necessary. I don't know if they gonna do it, but maybe their one point loss against China was a wake up-call. On the other hand the important turkish players Ibrahim Kutluay (twisted ankle) and Ersan Ilyasova (calf injury) are a little bit injured. My opinion: the surprising run of the young turkish team is over now, Slovenia will win.

Germany (4-1) vs. Nigeria (2-3)
I'm honest: I know nothing about Nigeria and the national team. But I'm pretty sure, they got no one like Dirk Nowitzki. And if the game is tight down the stretch, this will be the reason why Germany will win. And on thursday the german team got already a hard game against an african team, so they are prepared.

Italy (4-1) vs. Lithuania (3-2)
This one is difficult because I didn't saw a game of the Lithuanians. I love the style of the baltic basketball. The lithuanian team from the EC 2003 played the best basketball I ever saw. But this time they miss their two best players with Sarunas Jasikevicius and Ramunas Siskauskas. Italy - the second surprise behind Turkey - misses some important players, too, but somehow they don't seem to recognise. Lithuania got a better frontcourt, but anyway: Italy will win. But if you ask me which one of my predictions could be wrong, my answer is … this one!

France (3-2) vs. Angola (3-2)
Difficult. Like I wrote in the last blog, I don't buy all the stories of the french team as a team for the semis. And now they are playing without TP and got no more cheers from EL. I saw Angola against Germany and was impressed by shooter Olimpio Cipriano, quick point guard Milton Barros and power forward Joaquim Gomes (who played for my hometown Cologne two years ago). If they can play on the same level again, maybe we will have an african team in the quarterfinals. Okay, every so-called expert needs to do one surprising prediction: Angola will beat France!

Last but not least: Greetings to my cologne basketball teammate Toni Tabet from Lebanon. To bad your team is out. I would have loved to watch a game Lebanon against Germany together.

Okay, that's it for now. Excuse me? Ask that question once again, please … I couldn't understand you … Ahh, you wanna know about my predictions for the FIBA World Championship. It is a little bit early, but … my gut feeling as of today is: Spain is gonna win. Not because I like them, but because national player Juan Carlos Navaro got the best nickname in the world of professional sport: La Bomba!

spiele hart, spiele smart, lies FIVE (www.fivemag.de), rät der sven.